BREAKING: For unexpected reasons, Sabres are winning Mittelstadt Trade.

We’re now a little over 70 days since Casey Mittelstadt was traded for Bowen Byram between the Buffalo Sabres and Colorado Avalanche. Currently, Mittelstadt is still competing in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, while Byram did not make it to the NHL postseason and is now representing Team Canada in the World Championships, averaging a point per game.

On Wednesday, Mittelstadt scored a crucial go-ahead goal for the Avalanche in the third period due to an opportunistic bounce. So, it seems like Colorado is benefiting more from the trade, right?

Not necessarily…

Avalanche POV

The Avalanche are delighted with the offensive boost Mittelstadt has provided as the second-line center. Initially, Ryan Johansen was brought in during the offseason for this role but was a major disappointment and subsequently traded. Another offseason acquisition, Ross Colton, has performed well but fits better on the third line.

During his 18 regular season games with the Avalanche, Mittelstadt scored four goals and added six assists, averaging 0.56 points per game, which is lower than his 0.76 points per game in 62 games with the Sabres. However, in the postseason, Mittelstadt has excelled, tallying nine points in 10 playoff games, translating to a 0.68 points-per-game pace with Colorado.

WAR

The WAR metrics (wins above replacement) for Mittelstadt also declined after his move to Colorado. Evolving-Hockey data shows he contributed 2.3 wins above a replacement-level player while with the Buffalo Sabres. In contrast, his regular season performance with the Avalanche barely registered above replacement level, with just 0.1 wins added.

This decline isn’t solely due to a drop in production but also reflects negative impacts on his defensive play and limited effectiveness on the powerplay in Colorado. Mittelstadt’s powerplay opportunities have been minimal, primarily because Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen dominate those minutes.

Relative Statistics

Relative-to-teammate stats indicate that when Mittelstadt is on the ice, the Avalanche generate more shot attempts. However, he negatively impacts his teammates’ shot-on-net percentage, shot quality percentage, and goals scored for and against. This is a stark contrast to his time in Buffalo, where he had a more positive effect, suggesting Mittelstadt might not be the best fit in Colorado.

While an adjustment period might be needed, Mittelstadt’s underlying statistics with the Avalanche are concerning. Colorado fans might be pleased with his current production, but this satisfaction comes from the low bar set by the void left at the position following the departures of Nazem Kadri, J.T. Compher, and Alex Newhook.

Sabres POV

Bowen Byram made an immediate impact in Buffalo, recording five points in his first four games with the Sabres. Although he hit a slump with only one point over the following 11 games, he finished the season strong by scoring a point in each of his last three games. His overall half-point-per-game pace in Buffalo was an improvement compared to his time in Colorado, where he amassed 20 points in 55 games.

WAR

Byram’s WAR metrics are solid overall, despite negative impacts on defense and the powerplay that counterbalance his positive even-strength offensive contributions. His decline in performance with Buffalo wasn’t nearly as severe as Mittelstadt’s with the Avalanche, suggesting that the gaps in Byram’s game are less about adjusting to a new team dynamic.

Relative Statistics

The relative-to-teammate statistics for Byram aren’t favorable either, showing that he negatively impacts his teammates in all facets of event-based measurements.

Mittelstadt vs. Byram

The debate over who is winning the trade between Casey Mittelstadt and Bowen Byram requires a broader perspective. Mittelstadt, who will turn 26 this season, is a pending restricted free agent, which means his value as an asset will change this summer. Evolving-Hockey projects that he could sign a three-year deal worth just under $6 million annually, and a long-term contract could see his average annual value rise to $7 million or $8 million. This is a significant increase from the $2.5 million he cost this season. If the Avalanche decide to sign him, it might come at the cost of losing another key player or two on their roster.

In contrast, Byram is cost-controlled for another season at $3.85 million. After that, he’ll become a restricted free agent and could be signed to a long-term deal before reaching age 23. Typically, this means Byram will offer good value for one more season before his contract, and then for about three to four seasons afterward.

At 26, Mittelstadt is likely at the peak of his development, having posted two consecutive seasons with points in the high 50s. Byram, at 22, is still on a slower development curve typical for defensemen. His goals and points have steadily increased each season, indicating a linear development trajectory. While Mittelstadt is currently the better player, Byram’s draft pedigree and future potential suggest he could become more valuable in the long run.

Byram’s Potential

As a former fourth overall pick, Bowen Byram joins an elite group of top-five draft selections from recent seasons:

– **2022**
– Simon Nemec [4]

– **2021**
– Owen Power [1]
– Luke Hughes [4]

– **2020**
– Jake Sanderson [5]

– **2019**
– Bowen Byram [4]

– **2018**
– Rasmus Dahlin [1]

– **2017**
– Miro Heiskanen [3]
– Cale Makar [4]

Dahlin, Heiskanen, and Makar are already established as some of the NHL’s top defensemen, and they’re only a year or two older than Byram. Meanwhile, Sanderson, Hughes, Power, and Nemec have all demonstrated themselves as solid top-four defensemen with elite potential.

This places Byram’s potential ceiling significantly higher than Mittelstadt’s. While Mittelstadt may be a borderline second-line center who primarily contributes at even strength, players of his caliber are more readily available compared to elite defensemen who excel in all situations.

If Byram can continue to develop and reach his full potential, the Sabres could come out as clear winners in a trade involving him for Mittelstadt.