BREAKING: MLB Confirms Execs Project $498 Million Deal That Will Keep Juan Soto In New York
While the average MLB salary reached a record $4.5 million for 2024, driven by rising league revenues, this figure is significantly skewed by mega contracts awarded to a few generational talents.
Yankees outfielder Juan Soto could be the next player to secure a record-breaking contract in terms of average annual value (AAV) this offseason. A recent poll of 28 MLB executives by ESPN projected Soto’s potential earnings, estimating a range from $50 million for a single season to $655 million over 10 years. The average projection was $482.5 million over 11.6 years. After removing the highest and lowest outliers, the average rose to $498.4 million over 12.4 years, resulting in a $40.4 million AAV.
Among the panelists, the majority (14 out of 28) believed Soto would land a deal in the $500 million to $599 million range, while three projected his contract would exceed $600 million.
Juan Soto Expects A Record-Setting Contract
In the last two offseasons, new records for annual average value (AAV) measured in terms of the luxury tax have been set consecutively. Aaron Judge signed a nine-year, $360 million deal with a $40 million AAV from the New York Yankees in 2022. In 2023, Shohei Ohtani signed a historic 10-year, $700 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers, setting the highest total contract value in sports history and a record AAV of $46 million.
“I know people are going to think this is crazy, but I would say the floor is $500 million.”@Ken_Rosenthal talks about how much he thinks it'll take for Juan Soto to stay a Yankee pic.twitter.com/ZqJQJbQuS7
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) June 9, 2024
According to ESPN’s panel, Juan Soto’s projected contract would fall short of Ohtani’s records for both total amount and luxury tax AAV. However, it would surpass Judge’s AAV and set a new record for a player who doesn’t pitch. With the rising value of mega deals and increasing league revenue, it’s challenging to find a realistic comparison for Soto, who is considered a generational talent.
At just 25 years old, Soto is regarded as the biggest on-base threat in the major leagues, boasting the highest OBP since his debut in 2018. He has led MLB in walks three times, earned MVP votes in four seasons, received four Silver Slugger awards, and is currently slashing .318/.425/.599 for a Yankees team with the highest win total.
Soto’s agent, Scott Boras, emphasized the historic value of signing a player like Soto: “When you represent players who I call ‘centurions,’ where you can say that they will be among the top 100 players to ever play this game, you don’t worry about the cost of them for a franchise because they increase the franchise value of the team,” Boras told The Athletic. “The only cost is what it costs to build the momentum.”
ESPN’s panel suggests that anything less than a record-setting deal for Soto would be seen as a failure. “The most common responses posited that, for the contract to be viewed as a success in the industry, the deal must best Judge’s $40 million average annual value,” noted Kiley McDaniel for ESPN. Insiders believe Boras will aim to surpass Ohtani’s deferral-adjusted AAV of just over $46 million and target $500 million in guarantees as another benchmark.
Thus, while it remains to be seen exactly how much Soto will earn, the expectations are sky-high, and a historic contract seems likely given his talent and market dynamics.
Where Will Juan Soto Play Next?
Only a select few MLB franchises can realistically afford to offer a record-setting contract like the one projected for Juan Soto. Despite the trend of increasing mega deals and rising average salaries, several teams, including large-market franchises such as the New York Mets, Los Angeles Angels, and Chicago White Sox, have reduced their payrolls from last season.
When projecting Soto’s likely destination next year, ESPN’s panel overwhelmingly suggested he will remain in New York, either with the Yankees or the Mets.
“It’s still very early, of course, but the Yankees and Mets were by far the most common answer when discussing potential outcomes with our panel of baseball insiders,” noted McDaniel. “Beyond them, the Texas Rangers, Washington Nationals, San Francisco Giants, and Toronto Blue Jays were all mentioned multiple times — but everyone else mentioned is seen as secondary to the New York clubs at this point.”
Given the financial capability and market positioning of the Yankees and Mets, it seems probable that one of these New York teams will secure Soto’s services, solidifying their rosters with one of baseball’s premier talents.