REPORT: Detroit Tigers face key decision about the future of their catching corps
With Carson Kelly bound for free agency and Dillon Dingler having a promising season in Toledo, it’s decision time for the Detroit Tigers. The future of the Tigers’ catcher position will likely be determined in the next 10 days, factoring in the upcoming trade deadline, Kelly’s impending free agency, and Dingler’s success.
Currently, it appears Carson Kelly will be traded by July 31.
Last August, Harris and A.J. Hinch made a smart move by claiming the then 29-year-old catcher off waivers from the Arizona Diamondbacks. While the Tigers have improved their pitcher development, they’ve also excelled at coaching catchers. They turned Jake Rogers into an outstanding defensive catcher, and in less than a year, have upgraded Kelly’s game as well.
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Both Tigers catchers are strong in almost every defensive category, including framing, blocking, pop times, and throwing ability. While some might prefer Rogers behind the plate, both are above-average catchers and are key strengths in the position player group.
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The difference lies in their contract situations: Rogers has two years left beyond 2024 before reaching free agency, while Kelly’s contract ends this season. The Tigers could extend Kelly or trade and re-sign him in the offseason, but trading him now makes sense.
Kelly is having a strong season at the plate. Over the past three years, Rogers has generally been better both as a hitter and a catcher. However, Kelly has rebounded with his best offensive season at age 30, while Rogers is struggling at the plate this year. Despite limited cumulative plate appearances over the past three seasons, Kelly is the more appealing trade piece right now.
Carson Kelly 2022-2024
| Season | PA | wRC+ | K% | BB% | ISO | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 354 | 74 | 20.1 | 8.2 | 0.123 | 0.6 |
| 2023 | 151 | 56 | 26.5 | 9.3 | 0.081 | 0.1 |
| 2024 | 191 | 108 | 19.9 | 8.4 | 0.160 | 1.6 |
Jake Rogers 2021-2024
| Season | PA | wRC+ | K% | BB% | ISO | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 127 | 115 | 36.2 | 8.7 | 0.257 | 0.9 |
| 2023 | 365 | 97 | 32.3 | 7.7 | 0.224 | 2.5 |
| 2024 | 199 | 71 | 30.2 | 5.0 | 0.156 | 1.2 |
There isn’t a more valuable catcher than Carson Kelly likely to be traded in the next 10 days. While Ben Rortvedt of the Rays and Logan O’Hoppe of the Angels are arguably a bit better, both have many years of team control remaining. Despite their respective clubs’ situations, they aren’t likely to be traded. If they were, it would involve a different kind of long-term trade. The Tigers should be able to pull a prospect just outside the top 100 for Kelly, or they could package him with Jack Flaherty to a team needing upgrades in both the rotation and catcher position, potentially leveraging a better prospect.
Another reason to trade Kelly is Dillon Dingler’s recent offensive improvement, holding a 116 wRC+ with 12 home runs in 66 games for the Triple-A Toledo Mud Hens. Dingler has slashed his strikeout rate from 31.2% last season at Triple-A to a respectable 20.9%. He’s also tapping into his solid raw power more effectively, launching several impressive home runs in recent weeks.
Already known as a fine defensive catcher with good hands, athleticism, good pop times, and a strong arm, Dingler’s time is here. The Tigers need to see what they’ve got in the now 25-year-old former second-rounder from the 2020 draft. Trading Kelly and getting a good look at Dingler seems like the move, with the possibility of re-signing Kelly in the offseason if Dingler proves unconvincing.
The Tigers must consider the Rogers/Kelly duo’s future. Presumably, their offensive numbers will even out over time. Both are strong defensively, making it hard to let either go. The only flaw is that neither is left-handed. Rogers is probably the better game caller and Tarik Skubal’s regular catcher, which is a significant factor. Kelly is the better hitter this year, but the decision boils down to preferring Rogers’ power or Kelly’s better contact ability.
The Tigers could surprise and trade Dingler in a deal. Dingler is ready to step in as a quality defensive backup, and if the Tigers don’t believe he’ll hit enough to play regularly, that might be the move, especially if they can sign Kelly to a two or three-year extension at a reasonable price. If they believe Kelly has figured it out with the bat, it’s worth doing, but there’s no guarantee Kelly wants to stay badly enough to sign a team-friendly deal.
Alternatively, the Tigers could trade Jake Rogers. Plenty of teams would value his defense, power at the plate, and success against left-handers. However, Rogers, after posting a 115 wRC+ in 2021 and a 97 mark last season, is struggling this year with a 71 wRC+. Despite the outstanding defense, Rogers isn’t at peak trade value, and the Tigers have two more years until he reaches free agency.
Dingler needs to see if he can take the next step under the bright lights. Kelly turned his career around in Detroit and probably wants to test free agency rather than taking a cheap two-year extension, which is likely as far as this front office would go.
Assuming they’ll at least inquire about extension talks with Kelly, consider the trade interest in Rogers, and make the call, we’ll know what the Tigers’ catching position will look like for at least the next two years within 10 days. Odds are on Jake Rogers staying, with Dingler as his understudy, and Kelly traded. Still, maybe the Tigers will surprise us with something unexpected.