BREAKING: Astros to make painful, but necessary decision in order to re-sign former baseman

As the offseason begins, the Houston Astros face several challenging questions. Will Justin Verlander return next season? What will it cost to re-sign Yusei Kikuchi? And who will step in at first base?

However, the most pressing issue is whether Alex Bregman will remain with the team. As the top free agent for the Astros, Bregman is set to hit the open market shortly after the World Series. While teammate Jose Altuve believes there’s no chance Bregman plays for another team next season, many MLB analysts think otherwise.

Bregman is likely seeking a lucrative contract, aiming to exceed the six-year, $151 million extension that Matt Chapman signed with the San Francisco Giants. To meet Bregman’s demands while staying under the luxury tax, the Astros may need to shed some salary. This raises the question: would Houston consider trading Framber Valdez to facilitate Bregman’s re-signing?

The Astros are unlikely to re-sign Alex Bregman given next year’s payroll

According to projections from MLB Trade Rumors regarding the Houston Astros’ arbitration-eligible players, the team’s projected payroll for next season would exceed $205 million if they choose to re-sign all of them. This figure does not include Alex Bregman, who is set to become a free agent. With the luxury tax threshold set at $241 million, the Astros are approximately $36 million away from crossing that threshold without adding any new free agents this offseason. Last season, the Astros went over the threshold, and doing so again in 2025 would incur a 30% tax. If they exceed the first threshold by more than $20 million, a 12% surcharge would also apply.

For those hoping to see Bregman return in 2025, it’s clear that the Astros cannot afford to keep their third baseman at a salary of $25-28 million annually without making some significant salary cuts—or unless he is their only addition. Valdez is projected to earn around $17.5 million in what will be his final year of arbitration eligibility. By trading Valdez and with some strategic moves from Astros GM Dana Brown, the team could potentially create the payroll flexibility needed to re-sign Bregman to a long-term deal while still improving the roster.

Should the Astros trade Framber Valdez in order to re-sign Alex Bregman?

Deciding whether to keep Alex Bregman at the expense of Framber Valdez is indeed a complex issue for the Astros. Bregman has been a key player for the team, providing consistent offensive production, while Valdez emerged as the ace of the rotation this past season with a solid 15-7 record and a 2.91 ERA. Given the injuries that decimated Houston’s starting rotation this year, trading away Valdez could leave the team vulnerable, especially if they can’t guarantee the health of their returning starters in 2025.

However, considering the financial constraints and the need to retain top talent, trading Valdez could be a strategic move. By dealing him now rather than risking losing him to free agency next offseason, the Astros could secure valuable prospects that might bolster their future. With other injured starters expected to return, Houston might have a sufficient rotation even without Valdez, making the potential trade more palatable.

Ultimately, the Astros’ management, led by Dana Brown, will need to weigh the value of Bregman’s offensive contributions against Valdez’s pitching prowess. If they decide that keeping Bregman is a priority, they might have to part ways with Valdez, especially considering that they already have commitments to other stars like José Altuve, Yordan Álvarez, Luis García, and Josh Hader. It’s a tough balancing act, but with limited financial flexibility, tough decisions will need to be made, and Valdez could very well end up being one of the casualties.