BREAKING: Minnesota Twins officially Signs Bailey Ober to Contract Extension

Since his debut, Bailey Ober has become a key fixture in the Twins’ starting rotation and is beginning to command a higher salary through arbitration. Is this the ideal moment to secure him with a long-term deal?

As the Minnesota Twins approach an offseason full of critical decisions, Ober stands out as a prime candidate for a contract extension. With three years of team control left, now is an opportune time to lock him in, providing stability for the rotation well into the future. Here’s why a long-term extension would benefit both the team and Ober.

Ober’s Track Record of Success

Bailey Ober has quietly established himself as one of the Twins’ most reliable starters. Since his MLB debut in 2021, he has consistently showcased an impressive mix of control and efficiency. Over 88 career starts, Ober has compiled a 3.76 ERA (112 ERA+), a 1.07 WHIP, and a 25.6% strikeout rate—an indicator of his steady presence in the rotation.

In 2024, Ober elevated his game, proving he is more than just a mid-rotation arm. Over 178 2/3 innings, he posted a 3.98 ERA, an outstanding 1.00 WHIP, and a career-high 191 strikeouts. His success can be attributed to an increased reliance on a dominant changeup, which, when paired with his deceptive fastball, has kept hitters guessing. This approach has earned him one of the lowest hard-hit rates among American League starters (83rd percentile). Notably, the expected slugging percentage (xSLG) against his changeup dropped from .346 in 2023 to .263 in 2024—a testament to his progress and development as a top-tier pitcher.

The Case for an Extension

With three years of arbitration eligibility left, the Twins have a prime opportunity to leverage Ober’s current team control to negotiate a team-friendly extension. Such a deal would not only cover his arbitration years but could also lock in his services through his early free-agent seasons, ensuring stability in the rotation for years to come.

To understand the potential framework, we can look at comparable pitchers with similar service time who signed extensions. These examples provide valuable benchmarks for structuring a deal that benefits both Ober and the Twins.

Recent extensions for comparable pitchers provide a useful reference point for crafting a deal for Bailey Ober.

• Logan Webb (San Francisco Giants): Ahead of the 2023 season, Webb inked a five-year, $90-million extension that bought out his arbitration years and extended into his early free-agent eligibility. The deal ensures Webb remains a cornerstone of the Giants’ rotation through 2028.
• Cristian Javier (Houston Astros): On February 10, 2023, the Astros committed to Javier with a five-year, $64-million extension. This contract included his arbitration years and secured additional seasons. However, Javier underwent Tommy John surgery last year, complicating his long-term value.
• Mitch Keller (Pittsburgh Pirates): Keller signed a five-year, $77-million extension on February 22, 2024, following an All-Star campaign. Notably, Keller was two years younger than Ober at the time but in a similar service-time situation. His deal covers arbitration and extends into free agency, ensuring his presence in Pittsburgh’s rotation.

These deals highlight the Twins’ opportunity to secure Ober with a structured, team-friendly contract that reflects his value while managing future payroll flexibility.

For Bailey Ober, a five-year deal valued between $65 and $85 million, potentially with a team option for a sixth year, could strike a balance between security for the player and long-term value for the Twins. Ober is projected to earn over $4 million this season and between $18-21 million across his remaining arbitration years, meaning he could accumulate around $25 million in arbitration earnings alone.

From the Twins’ perspective, this type of extension represents a calculated risk. Pitchers are inherently risky investments due to the potential for injuries, but Ober’s increased workload and impressive performance in 2024 suggest he is a worthwhile gamble. A long-term deal would provide cost certainty and help solidify the rotation while allowing Ober to secure financial stability.

The Long-Term Rotation Outlook

Extending Bailey Ober aligns seamlessly with the Twins’ long-term rotation strategy. While the team has promising young arms like Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews in the pipeline, the inherent uncertainty of prospects underscores the value of Ober’s proven track record. Alongside Pablo López and Joe Ryan, Ober solidifies a dependable trio in the rotation, offering both stability and performance.

Securing Ober now also shields the Twins from rising arbitration costs and the possibility of losing him to free agency, especially as the market for reliable starting pitchers continues to soar. Moreover, locking him into a long-term deal allows the front office to shift focus to other roster needs, confident that a cornerstone of their rotation is secured for years to come.

A Win-Win Scenario

For Bailey Ober, a long-term deal offers more than just financial security—it’s a career milestone. As a late bloomer and a 12th-round draft pick who didn’t receive a significant signing bonus, the stability of a guaranteed multi-million-dollar contract would be life-changing.

For the Twins, such a move demonstrates strategic foresight and a commitment to sustained competitiveness. In today’s game, where strong pitching is the foundation of any postseason contender, extending Ober ensures the team remains well-positioned to compete within its current window and beyond.

Ober’s consistent production, unique skill set, and ability to deliver quality innings make him an essential part of the Twins’ future. Rewarding him with a contract extension now would send a powerful message: the Minnesota Twins are serious about building and maintaining a winning team for the long term.

Should the Twins offer Ober an extension? What terms would make sense for both sides? Leave your thoughts in the COMMENTS to join the discussion!