BREAKING: Cincinnati Reds receives shocking season ending projections by Fangraphs

Fangraphs’ 2025 projections for the Cincinnati Reds show a more competitive outlook than Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system, though the overall picture remains similar. Fangraphs has the Reds finishing 78-84, tied for last in the NL Central with the Pittsburgh Pirates, six games behind the division-winning Chicago Cubs. PECOTA had the Reds 17 games behind the Cubs, with the Brewers a full 10 games back, signaling a much wider gap in their projections.

Fangraphs projects the Reds to score 740 runs, the 10th most in MLB, while PECOTA has them slightly behind at 736. On the pitching side, Fangraphs expects the Reds to allow 773 runs, while PECOTA projects 810. This results in a small difference in the final win projections—about four wins better for the Reds in Fangraphs’ model, largely due to a more optimistic pitching outlook.

Fangraphs believes the Reds’ bullpen will be a significant issue, projecting them as the 27th best bullpen in baseball, though it should be noted that the gap between the Reds and the three teams below them is large. In contrast, the Reds’ starting rotation is viewed more favorably, ranking 12th in MLB, with Hunter Greene and the rest of the staff providing solid depth but no standout ace.

While the Reds’ offense is projected to be league-average to slightly above, the bullpen remains a major concern. Fangraphs’ overall projection suggests that with a little luck, health, and potential breakout performances, the Reds could challenge for a higher finish, but as of now, they’re pegged as a team still on the fringe of contention.