BREAKING: Four Cincinnati Reds prospects listed among FanGraphs Top 100
The Cincinnati Reds made Chase Burns the highest-drafted pitcher in the 2024 MLB Draft, selecting the Wake Forest right-hander with the No. 2 overall pick.
Burns features a fastball that reaches triple digits and a dominant slider, a combination that made him one of the top strikeout pitchers in Division 1 college baseball last season. Given his talent, it’s no surprise he quickly became the Reds’ top-ranked prospect, as reflected in Eric Longenhagen’s latest FanGraphs Top 100 prospect rankings.
Longenhagen ranks Burns at No. 28 overall with a 55 FV grade—equivalent to the No. 11 prospect on the list. Interestingly, Reds catching prospect Alfredo Duno is right behind him at No. 29, a surprising placement. They are joined in the Top 100 by fellow Reds prospects Chase Petty (No. 42) and Rhett Lowder (No. 51), highlighting the strength of Cincinnati’s farm system.
However, things look quite different when comparing Longenhagen’s rankings to the ZiPS Top 100 list from FanGraphs’ Dan Szymborski. According to ZiPS, only two Reds prospects make the cut—and Burns isn’t one of them.
Szymborski addressed Burns’ omission, explaining that his lack of professional innings after being drafted limits his ranking since ZiPS doesn’t translate college stats well. Interestingly, Lowder made last year’s ZiPS Top 100 at No. 74 before ever pitching professionally and now ranks No. 55 after his 2024 debut. This year, Lowder is joined only by Edwin Arroyo (No. 92), marking a decline from the six Reds prospects who appeared on last year’s list. Petty (No. 95 in 2023), Carlos Jorge (No. 81), Sal Stewart (No. 79, likely affected by injury), and Noelvi Marte (No. 51) all dropped off, while Arroyo fell from No. 33 to No. 92.
Optimists might point out that Burns, Duno, Petty, Lowder, and Arroyo all rank in at least one version of FanGraphs’ Top 100. However, Reds fans—understandably skeptical after years of uncertainty—may view these rankings as further proof of mixed opinions on the team’s top prospects.
For now, Reds fans can take pride in the fact that at least one respected evaluator considers Alfredo Duno a Top 30 prospect in all of baseball.