Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Nick Castellanos could see a reduction in playing time as his struggles at the plate persist. Earlier this season, he displayed improved plate discipline and consistent production, hitting .282/.325/.451 with 10 home runs and 45 RBI over 84 games through June 30, posting a 113 wRC+ and a 0.28 BB/K rate. Since July 1, however, Castellanos has slumped to a .189/.211/.329 line with six home runs and 16 RBI across 36 games, with his wRC+ dropping to 43 and BB/K rate to 0.10. After appearing in all 162 games last year, he has only had two days off so far in August.
For the full season, Castellanos is hitting .253/.291/.413 with 16 home runs and 61 RBI in 120 games, a 92 wRC+, and a 0.21 BB/K rate. His 40.8% O-Swing rate is a career high, while his O-Contact rate stands at 54.0%. By contrast, he maintains a 78.7% Z-Swing rate and 85.9% Z-Contact rate. Baseball Savant ranks him in the third percentile for chase rate. Castellanos has a -0.6 fWAR, tied for the second-lowest among qualified position players, and a -3.02 WPA, the worst in that group.
Nick Castellanos Could See Reduced Playing Time for Phillies
The Need to Play Bader
Harrison Bader, acquired by the Phillies at the trade deadline, is expected to see more playing time. This season, combining his time with the Minnesota Twins and the Phillies, he’s hit .250/.333/.422 with 13 home runs and 42 RBI over 109 games, posting a 112 wRC+ and a 0.35 BB/K rate. Since joining Philadelphia, Bader has slumped to a .189/.295/.297 line with one home run and four RBI in 13 games, with a 69 wRC+ and a 0.57 BB/K rate. Much of the dip in production can be attributed to irregular playing time, and more consistent opportunities should help boost his offensive performance.
Interesting Splits That Should Matter
This season, Bader has shown reverse splits. The 31-year-old is hitting .798 OPS with a 124 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, but just a .666 OPS and 85 wRC+ versus left-handers. By comparison, Castellanos has struggled against righties, posting a .693 OPS and 89 wRC+, while performing better against lefties with a .728 OPS and 100 wRC+. Based on these numbers, Bader should be getting more playing time against right-handed pitching. It’s also worth noting that there was some speculation about Castellanos being traded at the deadline, though that ultimately did not occur.
Top Prospect Could Take Over if Promoted
All signs point to Justin Crawford being promoted to the majors soon. Multiple reports from Matt Gelb of The Athletic indicate that the Phillies hold Crawford in high regard. This season in the minors, he’s slashed .333/.414/.441 with four home runs and 40 RBI over 100 games, posting a 131 wRC+ and a 0.65 BB/K rate.
Whether the promotion comes before or after September 1, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Phillies field an outfield trio of Brandon Marsh, Harrison Bader, and Crawford this season. If Crawford does join the big-league roster, he’ll need consistent playing time, which could come at the expense of Castellanos’ at-bats.
