The Philadelphia Phillies have been one of the most dominant teams in Major League Baseball this season, consistently showcasing both offensive firepower and solid pitching. However, the team has now encountered a significant setback: their ace, Zack Wheeler, will be sidelined for the remainder of the season. Wheeler’s absence is a major blow, as he has been a cornerstone of the Phillies’ rotation and a key figure in their push for a deep postseason run. Without him, the responsibility to maintain consistency and keep the rotation competitive falls squarely on the shoulders of the remaining starters. Among those, Aaron Nola’s performance has become an area of growing concern.
Nola, who has long been considered one of the Phillies’ most reliable arms, is enduring a difficult season. Injuries have limited him to just 13 starts so far, and his overall results have been disappointing. Entering his most recent outing against the Milwaukee Brewers, Nola carried a 6.78 ERA, and Wednesday night’s performance only exacerbated concerns. He allowed six earned runs, five of which came in the very first inning, highlighting an ongoing issue that has plagued him all season: first-inning struggles. In fact, Nola’s ERA in the first inning this year sits at a staggering 9.69, with 14 earned runs surrendered. This is in sharp contrast to his career first-inning numbers, which reflect a much more reliable 3.97 ERA.
Given these struggles, some might suggest implementing an opener to shield Nola from facing the top of the order in the first inning. However, Phillies manager Rob Thomson has firmly rejected that strategy, according to The Athletic’s Charlotte Varnes. Nola has never started a game with an opener in Philadelphia, and the team has historically trusted him to handle the first inning on his own. Over his career, Nola has generally been effective in setting the tone for his starts, making the current struggles a noticeable deviation from his usual performance.
Even removing Nola from the first inning would not entirely resolve the problem, as he has been equally vulnerable in the middle innings. The third and fourth innings, in particular, have been challenging. Through 12 1/3 innings in the third and 11 2/3 innings in the fourth, Nola has posted ERAs of 8.03 and 6.17, respectively. This suggests that his difficulties are not limited to the first frame; rather, he has struggled to maintain consistency throughout his starts, giving up multiple big innings and forcing the bullpen into extended appearances.
Looking back at last season provides a stark contrast. Nola made 33 starts in 2024, posting a 3.57 ERA and cementing himself as a key contributor to the Phillies’ success. The 32-year-old pitcher has the experience and track record to rebound, even if this year’s regular-season numbers are troubling. Manager Rob Thomson remains optimistic, expressing confidence in Nola’s ability to elevate his performance in the postseason. “I always have confidence in him because he’s always prepared, he competes, and the bright lights don’t affect him,” Thomson told Varnes. This confidence is rooted in Nola’s history of rising to the occasion in high-pressure situations, a skill that will be crucial as the Phillies enter the playoffs.
Currently, the Phillies hold the No. 2 seed in the National League, a position that would allow them to bypass the wild-card round. This extra rest could prove beneficial for Nola, giving him more time to recover and prepare for a potential October resurgence. If he can return to the form of his All-Star seasons, Nola would provide the Phillies with a dominant, elite-level arm in their rotation, significantly bolstering their chances of a deep playoff run. While the regular season has presented obstacles, the hope is that Nola can reclaim his best self and deliver the kind of pitching performance that the Phillies have relied on for years.
Ultimately, the Phillies’ postseason success may hinge on the ability of Nola and the rest of the rotation to step up in Wheeler’s absence. The season has already tested their depth and resilience, and the coming weeks will determine whether the team can maintain its status as one of baseball’s top contenders or if injuries and inconsistency derail their championship aspirations. For Nola, this is a chance to rewrite the narrative of a difficult season and remind everyone why he has been such a trusted figure in Philadelphia’s pitching staff.
