The Cincinnati Reds have a rare day off on Thursday, giving them a brief moment to catch their breath. But all eyes quickly turn to Friday night when the New York Mets arrive in town. For a Reds team still clinging to faint postseason hopes, this series could very well determine whether those dreams remain alive or are extinguished entirely. To keep any realistic shot at the playoffs, Cincinnati likely needs nothing less than a sweep against the Mets.
Wednesday’s loss to their opponent, coupled with a victory by the San Francisco Giants, has dropped the Reds to fifth place in the National League wild-card race. Only the top three teams in that race advance to the postseason, meaning every misstep now carries enormous consequences. Currently, the Reds sit five games behind the Mets and have fallen a full game behind the Giants. With just 22 games left on their schedule, the margin for error is razor-thin.
To put things in perspective, if both the Mets and the Giants play at a .500 clip the rest of the season, the Reds would need to go 16-6 just to even tie New York in the standings. If that tie were to happen, the first tiebreaker is head-to-head record. Cincinnati already has an edge here, having taken two of three from New York when the teams met earlier in the second half of the season. A sweep this weekend would secure the tiebreaker and potentially give the Reds a crucial advantage in the playoff race.
However, if the Reds win the series but fail to sweep, they would improve to only 72-71. At this pace, with the postseason likely requiring at least 86 wins, Cincinnati would then need to go 14-5 in their remaining games—a tall order by any measure.
There’s a common refrain in baseball that “every game counts the same,” but that couldn’t be further from reality in a tight playoff race. A win over a low-tier team like the Rockies, for instance, doesn’t carry the same weight as defeating a direct competitor such as the Mets. Losses against teams not in the playoff picture barely affect the standings, but each defeat against a rival for a postseason berth is magnified, making every head-to-head matchup absolutely critical.
Even if the Reds manage to sweep the Mets this weekend, the road ahead remains daunting. Failing to pull off that sweep would plunge them into near-impossible territory. There simply isn’t time to rely on “getting hot” later in the season; the calendar doesn’t allow for it. To have any realistic shot, Cincinnati must begin a hot streak immediately and sustain it through the final weeks. And even then, they will need a bit of fortune on their side, requiring the Mets and Giants to stumble down the stretch. While the Reds do have additional chances to face New York, the margin for error this weekend—and for the remainder of the season—is essentially zero.
Time is running out, the stakes couldn’t be higher, and the Reds’ playoff hopes hang by the slimmest of threads. This weekend isn’t just another series; it’s potentially the defining moment of Cincinnati’s season.
