JUST IN: Juan Soto to sign $655 million MLB deal contract

For three consecutive years, baseball has seen a standout No. 1 free agent whose potential contract dominates discussions throughout the sport.

First, it was Aaron Judge during his 62-home run season. Then came Shohei Ohtani, whose dual-threat performance sparked an unprecedented free agency craze.

Now, it’s Juan Soto’s turn.

Soto, who rejoined the New York Yankees’ lineup Monday night after a three-game absence due to forearm inflammation, is enjoying a career-best season in his first year with the Bronx Bombers. Not yet 26 years old, Soto’s age suggests a lengthy contract is likely. His agent, Scott Boras, is poised to negotiate the biggest deal of his career following a season where many of his clients opted for shorter-term contracts.

Soto stands as one of the game’s premier hitters, playing for baseball’s most iconic team, entering his prime, with the sport’s top agent at the helm of his negotiations. This sets the stage for another winter potentially featuring a record-breaking contract.

What will Soto’s contract look like? What records might it set? And which teams are in the running to sign him? We surveyed 28 MLB executives, agents, and insiders to predict Soto’s contract this winter.

### How Much Could Juan Soto Get?

Here are the 28 responses from our panel, grouped into tiers by total contract value:

**Under $400 million (3):**
– 1 year/$50 million
– 8 years/$296 million
– 10 years/$350 million

**$400-$499 million (8):**
– 10 years/$400 million
– 10 years/$450 million
– 11 years/$450 million
– 12 years/$450 million
– 13 years/$470 million
– 12 years/$480 million (3x)

**$500-$599 million (14):**
– 12 years/$500 million (2x)
– 13 years/$500 million (2x)
– 14 years/$500 million
– 15 years/$500 million
– 13 years/$502 million
– 12 years/$510 million
– 12 years/$525 million
– 12 years/$528 million
– 13 years/$540 million
– 12 years/$550 million
– 12 years/$552 million
– 14 years/$588 million

**At least $600 million (3):**
– 14 years/$600 million
– 12 years/$605 million
– 10 years/$655 million

The average of all 28 projections is 11.6 years and $482.5 million, for a $41.4 million average annual value (AAV). Excluding the four high outliers and four low outliers, the middle 20 projections give a more accurate snapshot:

– **Average years:** 12.4
– **Total guarantee:** $498.4 million
– **AAV:** $40.4 million

The median projection is 13 years and $500 million, aligning with the industry consensus. Notably, 61% of respondents—17 out of 28—believe Soto will secure at least half a billion dollars, which would set a record for present-day value. Shohei Ohtani’s 10-year deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers, with its deferred money, had an NPV of $460 million.

One outlier projection was a one-year, $50 million deal, reflecting a belief that Boras might underperform again, as perceived last winter.

### Industry Expectations

– **Average Annual Value:** Many respondents believe that for the contract to be successful, it must surpass Aaron Judge’s $40 million AAV.
– **Deferral-Adjusted AAV:** Boras will aim to exceed Ohtani’s deferral-adjusted AAV of just over $46 million, the official MLB figure for competitive balance tax purposes.
– **Total Guarantees:** Beating the $460 million figure is another target, with $500 million in guarantees being a commonly speculated benchmark.

With five months until Soto’s free agency, these projections provide a starting point for how teams might value the Yankees slugger in the offseason and what factors will shape his megadeal.

Who are the closest comps?

Finding comparable free agents from recent seasons is standard practice in the industry, but there simply aren’t many players who match up with what Juan Soto has accomplished since arriving in the majors as a 19-year-old in 2018.

Only Shohei Ohtani’s deal with the Dodgers, unique for many reasons, and Mike Trout’s 12-year, $426.5 million extension with the Los Angeles Angels, which involved no other potential suitors, clearly exceed the $300 million-plus contracts signed by Aaron Judge, Corey Seager, Gerrit Cole, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto in recent offseasons. However, Soto is expected to easily surpass these latter deals.

Two players do stand out as comparable guides to Soto’s free agency. In the 2018-19 winter, two elite position players hit free agency with impressive résumés at a very young age: Bryce Harper (also a Boras client) and Manny Machado. Here’s how Soto compares to those two superstars at similar points in their careers:

**Juan Soto**
– **Age at Free Agency:** 26
– **Career WAR:** 28.9
– **Career OPS:** .946
– **Home Runs:** 160
– **Walk Rate:** 19.0%
– **Strikeout Rate:** 14.2%

**Bryce Harper (before signing with the Phillies)**
– **Age at Free Agency:** 26
– **Career WAR:** 27.4
– **Career OPS:** .900
– **Home Runs:** 184
– **Walk Rate:** 14.9%
– **Strikeout Rate:** 21.1%

**Manny Machado (before signing with the Padres)**
– **Age at Free Agency:** 26
– **Career WAR:** 33.8
– **Career OPS:** .822
– **Home Runs:** 175
– **Walk Rate:** 9.0%
– **Strikeout Rate:** 16.0%

### Analysis

– **Age:** All three entered free agency at 26, aligning them closely in terms of age.
– **Performance Metrics:** Soto’s OPS of .946 is significantly higher than Harper’s .900 and Machado’s .822, indicating superior offensive performance.
– **Home Runs:** While Soto’s 160 home runs are fewer than Harper’s 184 and Machado’s 175, his walk rate of 19.0% and strikeout rate of 14.2% highlight his exceptional plate discipline compared to Harper and Machado.
– **Career WAR:** Soto’s career WAR of 28.9 is in the same range as Harper’s 27.4, though slightly lower than Machado’s 33.8.

Given these comparisons, Soto’s market value is expected to exceed those of Harper and Machado, considering his superior offensive statistics and comparable WAR. The context of the current market and recent large contracts also suggests that Soto could command a record-breaking deal this offseason.