The Phillies may ultimately be better served by exercising patience rather than rushing to add a veteran starter in the heart of spring training. As camps progress and rosters tighten across the league, experienced arms often become available when they fall out of favor elsewhere. Waiting for that moment — when competition squeezes someone out — could give Philadelphia a more flexible and potentially better-value option than committing too early.
That possibility became a bit clearer when Walker Buehler found a new home. The 31-year-old right-hander had seemed like a reasonable candidate for the Phillies if he were open to a minor-league deal. On Monday, he did agree to such a contract — just not in Philadelphia. Instead, he signed with the San Diego Padres, according to the San Diego Union-Tribune.
San Diego has been one of the more active teams in recent days. The Padres have added Nick Castellanos, German Marquez, Griffin Canning, and now Buehler as they attempt to fortify both their lineup and their pitching depth. From Buehler’s perspective, though, the fit is intriguing — and perhaps a bit crowded. San Diego already has as many as five pitchers competing for two open spots at the back of its rotation: Randy Vasquez, Canning, Marquez, Buehler and JP Sears. That’s a tight squeeze. It’s not necessarily a bad situation, but it’s far from an ideal one for someone hoping to reestablish himself with regular starts.
To be fair, Philadelphia would not have offered a perfectly clear runway either. Even if Buehler had signed with the Phillies, there would have been no guarantee of a full season’s worth of innings. At best, a newcomer would project as the seventh starter on the depth chart when everyone is healthy — possibly sixth if he clearly outperformed Taijuan Walker during camp.
As things currently stand, the Phillies’ projected Opening Day rotation includes Cristopher Sanchez, Jesus Luzardo, Aaron Nola, Walker and top prospect Andrew Painter. Meanwhile, ace Zack Wheeler is expected to return sometime within the first two months of the season as he continues his recovery from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery performed last September. Once Wheeler is back, the rotation picture becomes even more crowded.
Because of that depth — even with health uncertainties — Philadelphia has not felt the same urgency as some other clubs to secure another veteran starter immediately. It might appear, on the surface, that the Phillies have missed out as pitchers such as Jose Quintana, Aaron Civale, Jose Urquidy, Marquez and Buehler have come off the board. But that narrative overlooks a key part of the baseball calendar: the end of spring training can produce unexpected opportunities.
Every March, teams encounter roster crunches. Non-roster invitees who seemed like long shots suddenly pitch their way into consideration. Prospects force decisions. Veterans who expected jobs find themselves buried on depth charts. When that happens, front offices have to make difficult calls — and some experienced pitchers become available through opt-outs, releases or trades. That late-spring churn often creates buying opportunities for patient clubs.
It’s not hard to imagine that scenario playing out again. Given how crowded the Padres’ rotation competition appears, Buehler himself could re-enter the market if things don’t break his way in San Diego. The same applies across the league. A veteran who looked like a lock for a roster spot in February might find himself squeezed out by late March.
From a performance standpoint, Buehler represents both upside and uncertainty. During his peak years with the Los Angeles Dodgers from 2018 through 2021, he was one of the more dependable starters in the National League. Over that stretch, he posted a 39–13 record with a 2.75 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP across 94 starts. He missed bats, limited baserunners and pitched deep into games. That version of Buehler would have been an unquestioned asset to almost any club.
However, the more recent version has been far less dominant. Last season, he logged 126 innings with a 4.93 ERA. Even that number may have flattered him slightly when looking at his underlying metrics. His strikeout rate dropped to 6.6 per nine innings, and he walked 4.4 per nine — both well below league average for a starting pitcher. His fastball, once a reliable weapon, was hit hard. The raw stuff and command that defined his earlier success have not fully returned.
Still, there were flashes that hinted at usefulness, particularly during a brief stint in Philadelphia. After being released by the Boston Red Sox, Buehler signed with the Phillies in August. When he was recalled in mid-September, he delivered three solid appearances: one run allowed over five innings, followed by scoreless outings of 3⅔ innings and five innings. While it was a small sample size, it showed he could still contribute in the right circumstances.
Those performances earned him a spot on Philadelphia’s roster for the National League Division Series, where the Phillies faced the Dodgers. Ultimately, he did not pitch in the four-game series loss, serving instead as emergency depth in case a game stretched deep into extra innings. His role was insurance rather than impact — a reminder of how narrowly defined opportunities can be on a contender with established starters.
Looking at what remains on the free-agent market, the options are thinning. Right-handers Lucas Giolito, Zack Littell, Frankie Montas, Max Scherzer, Anthony DeSclafani, and Tony Gonsolin are still unsigned, along with left-handers Tyler Anderson, Patrick Corbin, Nestor Cortes, and Wade Miley. Of that group, only a few — perhaps DeSclafani or Miley — might realistically consider a minor-league contract. Others are likely holding out for guaranteed deals or clearer paths to rotation spots.
That reality reinforces the logic of waiting. The Phillies do not need to force a fit. Their current rotation, once Wheeler returns, projects as one of the stronger groups in the league. Sanchez and Luzardo bring left-handed balance. Nola remains a durable innings-eater. Painter offers high-upside potential. Walker provides experience at the back end. Depth pieces can shuttle between Triple-A and the majors as needed.
Of course, pitching depth can evaporate quickly. Injuries are an unfortunate constant in the sport, and a surplus in February can become a shortage by May. That’s precisely why patience matters. By keeping roster spots and payroll flexibility open, the Phillies position themselves to react to unforeseen developments rather than committing prematurely.
There is also a psychological component to late-spring signings. Veterans who miss out on Opening Day jobs elsewhere often arrive motivated, eager to prove they still belong. They may be more willing to accept flexible roles — spot starts, bullpen transitions, or depth assignments — in exchange for another opportunity on a competitive club.
In the end, Philadelphia’s front office appears content to let the market settle. Missing on Buehler does not represent a failure so much as a calculated decision. The team knows what it has internally and understands that the supply of available pitching will likely shift again as camp winds down.
Spring training has a way of reshaping assumptions. Today’s surplus can become tomorrow’s release. A pitcher buried on one depth chart can become a valuable sixth or seventh starter on another. By waiting for that moment, the Phillies may find a better match — one whose circumstances align more cleanly with their needs.
For now, standing pat is not the same as standing still. It’s a strategic pause. And in a sport where timing often matters as much as talent, that patience could pay off.
