DONE TODAY: Miami moves ahead of FSU in State to Georgia Tech after losing 5-star commitment

Florida State’s 24-21 loss to Georgia Tech on Saturday caused Miami to overtake the Seminoles in the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) projections for winning the ACC. Clemson is now the frontrunner with a 23.2% chance of winning the conference, while Miami is ranked third with a 10.6% chance according to the FPI.

Louisville holds the second spot with a 14.0% chance of winning the ACC, while Florida State has dropped from first to fourth, now holding a 9.5% chance. Before the loss to Georgia Tech, Miami’s chances of winning the ACC were at 9.9%. Florida State is scheduled to play Clemson and Miami in 2024, but not Louisville.

Back in June, the ESPN FPI gave Florida State a 26.2% chance to win the ACC, with Clemson second at 19.3% and Louisville third at 12.0%. Georgia Tech has now moved up from having the 12th best odds to the eighth-best.

Clemson, Louisville, and Miami were the primary beneficiaries of Florida State’s loss according to the FPI projections. The loss improved the ACC title chances for several teams, with Georgia Tech’s chances increasing from 1.0% to 7.9%.

The defeat also altered the projected outcome of the Miami vs. Florida State game. Miami’s chances of beating Florida State increased from 43.0% to 47.4%, making it a near toss-up.

Georgia Tech exposed weaknesses in Florida State’s game, and their victory has intensified the race for a spot in the ACC Championship game in Charlotte on December 7. Miami’s upcoming game at Georgia Tech has gained more importance following Georgia Tech’s victory over Florida State, with Georgia Tech now having a 52.0% chance to beat Miami.