JUST IN: Highly rated Pitcher Painfully Expose Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins are still chasing the Cleveland Guardians for the top spot in the American League Central Division. They’re currently in a good position to make the postseason, but to maintain that spot, their starting pitching needs to keep performing well.
Minnesota Twins horses can’t run with MLB’s best
Since the offseason, the Minnesota Twins have been searching for a starting pitcher to replace Sonny Gray in the rotation, but payroll constraints have prevented them from securing such an arm. Pablo Lopez is now the staff ace and must perform at his best, especially with Joe Ryan out for the season. Bailey Ober has stepped up significantly, which the Twins have desperately needed.
According to Eno Sarris from The Athletic, who recently ranked every starting pitcher in Major League Baseball entering September, the Twins’ situation isn’t ideal:
– **18. Pablo Lopez** (previous rank: 20th) – Lopez has been trending positively for weeks. Since his 14-strikeout performance on June 23, he has posted a 2.65 ERA across 11 starts.
– **53. Bailey Ober** (previous rank: 51st) – Ober’s ranking might reflect some recency bias, as he was shelled for nine runs by Atlanta in his last outing. However, he holds a 3.48 ERA over his last 12 starts, which drops to 2.09 if you exclude the Braves’ blow-up.
The fact that Sarris only placed one Twins pitcher in the top 50, while dropping another further down, underscores the rough reality. While Lopez has been trending well, he hasn’t looked like the ace he was a year ago. Ober continues to develop but has been prone to tough outings. Relying on Lopez and Ober at the top of a playoff rotation is a risky proposition, at best.
Louie Varland was electric coming on in relief for the @StPaulSaints in the win⚡️
5 IP / 1 H / 0 R / 2 BB / 9 K
His nine strikeouts were a season high and were the most he’s had in a game since April 2023 ⚔️#MNTwins pic.twitter.com/659R1d5QxJ
— Twins Player Development (@TwinsPlayerDev) August 29, 2024
Heightened expectations for Twins’ rookie starters
Rocco Baldelli’s rotation currently includes just two veteran arms, if Bailey Ober is considered a veteran. With Joe Ryan out for the season and Chris Paddack aiming for a bullpen role by playoff time, the Twins’ rotation is largely dependent on unproven rookies behind Pablo Lopez and Ober.
Simeon Woods Richardson has been a steady presence throughout the year, but Eno Sarris remains skeptical. The upside of both Zebby Matthews and David Festa, however, offers more promise:
– **60. David Festa** (previous rank: 155th) – Festa has posted a 3.06 ERA over his last seven games, holding opposing hitters to a .193 batting average. While his walk rate is a bit high, his 43 strikeouts in 32 1/3 innings are impressive.
– **65. Zebby Matthews** (previous rank: unranked) – Matthews has gone five innings in each of his three big-league starts. His most recent outing was his best, allowing just one run while striking out seven. Matthews has seen a rapid rise this year and could be an underrated asset down the stretch.
– **125. Simeon Woods Richardson** (previous rank: 147th) – Despite being the most stable rookie for Minnesota, Woods Richardson has the lowest ranking. He has a 5.59 ERA over his last six starts and appears to be struggling, possibly running out of steam.
The Twins’ rotation is filled with potential, but it also comes with significant uncertainty as they head toward the postseason.
Zebby Matthews, 2Ks in the 3rd.
6Ks thru 3. pic.twitter.com/sqVae8EFNI
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 25, 2024
The reality for Minnesota is that none of these three pitchers would typically be part of a postseason rotation. Ideally, the Twins would have more reliable options for high-pressure situations, but they haven’t made the necessary moves to ensure that.
While it’s possible that the three rookies could rise to the occasion and mature under the spotlight, there’s also a risk that the pressure could overwhelm them. It’s not surprising that the Twins are still in a strong position for the postseason, but it’s reasonable to have doubts about their ability to succeed once they get there.