CONFIRMED: Penguins Complete Trade For Another Top Star

The Pittsburgh Penguins have now confirmed the draft pick heading to the San Jose Sharks as part of the Erik Karlsson trade, following the 2024 NHL Draft Lottery on Tuesday night. Despite not winning the lottery to improve their No. 14 overall pick, it has officially transferred to the Sharks as stipulated in the trade agreement.

With this formalized, the trade involving Nathan Legare, Jeff Petry, Casey DeSmith, Mikael Granlund, Jan Ruuta, and the No. 14 overall pick in the 2024 NHL Draft for Karlsson is complete. Despite the clarity on the pick, my stance on the trade remains unaltered. I still believe it was a prudent move by the Penguins, with the potential to yield positive outcomes. The assets relinquished, particularly the first-round pick, were not deemed exceptionally significant, though the actual value of the pick may have exceeded initial estimations.

Ideally, the Penguins would have preferred a scenario where they made the playoffs, potentially advancing a round and thus sending a later pick, possibly in the 20s, to San Jose. However, this outcome did not materialize.

Now, with the confirmed pick, it’s essential to assess precisely what the Penguins are forfeiting and the type of player or prospect they might be sending to San Jose. To provide context, here’s a compilation of every player drafted at No. 14 overall since the 2005 NHL Draft, ranked by their total NHL games played up to this point.

Based on recent history within the salary cap era, San Jose is likely to acquire an NHL player through this pick. However, the quality of the player remains uncertain and could vary widely.

Among the candidates, Charlie McAvoy’s name stands out prominently, particularly due to his potential as a star player. As a top-tier defenseman and consistent contender for the Norris Trophy, McAvoy has the ability to significantly influence a team’s long-term prospects and any potential rebuilding efforts.

Other players like Kevin Shattenkirk, Jaden Schwartz, and Jake DeBrusk have had respectable careers as solid contributors, but they aren’t considered franchise-changing talents. They’re dependable players but not game-changers.

Looking beyond this group, there are few players who truly stand out as significant impact-makers. While some, like Michael Grabner and Joel Farabee, have had notable moments, most fall into the category of average NHL players who are readily available.

It’s worth considering that focusing solely on players selected at that specific spot can be misleading, as the value of a pick depends not only on the individual player chosen but also on the available talent within that draft range. Expanding the analysis to include players chosen between No. 14 and No. 20 broadens the talent pool and provides a more comprehensive perspective.

In this expanded pool, 85% of players have played at least one NHL game, indicating a relatively high success rate. However, only around 66% of them have played at least 100 NHL games, suggesting that longevity and sustained success at the NHL level are less common.

Further analysis reveals the top 25 most productive players in terms of points per game among this group of draftees.

In that group, there are several notable players like Karlsson, McAvoy, Kyle Connor, Mathew Barzal, J.T. Miller, Vladimir Tarasenko, and a few others considered top-line talents (Rober Thomas, Dylan Larkin, Alex Tuch, Teuvo Teravainen, Cole Caufield, Chris Kreider, and Tomas Hertl).

Among the goalies, Andrei Vasilevskiy stands out as the best, having played over 100 games in that range. However, only about 16 players from that group have managed to maintain a scoring rate of 50 points per 82 games throughout their NHL careers. Even with Vasilevskiy included, the odds of landing a consistent top-line player or star are only around 12 percent.

While the chances are slim, if San Jose can find a player in that spot who can make a significant impact, it would be commendable. However, historical data suggests they are more likely to end up with players of lesser impact. This doesn’t discount the potential value of the pick entirely but emphasizes that it’s unlikely to significantly alter the team’s trajectory.

Realistically, Karlsson, even at this stage of his career, is expected to contribute more to the Penguins over the next few years than any player selected at the No. 14 spot ever will in their NHL career. Therefore, it’s not a pick one typically begins a rebuild with, and opting for a future Hall of Famer like Karlsson seems like a justified move.

Now that the Erik Karlsson trade is finalized, the Penguins have secured their 2025 first-round pick. This pick could be used as trade leverage leading up to the 2025 NHL Trade Deadline or held onto in case it proves to be more valuable than the 2024 first-round pick. Unfortunately, there’s a real possibility that the 2025 pick could end up being higher. Nonetheless, the author remains content with the trade.