Breaking: Sacramento Kings land on worst contracts of the 2024 offseason
NBA free agency isn’t solely about acquiring the best talent; it’s also crucial to sign them at a fair price. But what exactly is “fair”?
In a recent Forbes article, I employed a method to project production value, which involves multiplying a player’s Estimated Wins by the cost of a win in the 2024-25 season ($3.4 million). While this calculation isn’t perfect, it provides a useful analytical framework, which is crucial in contract negotiations.
The exercise revealed some intriguing results. Interestingly, six of the seven worst contracts handed out so far were from Eastern Conference teams, often considered the weaker conference.
The only Western Conference team to give out a top-seven worst contract was the Los Angeles Lakers, the division rivals of the Sacramento Kings (whom the Kings defeated 4-0 last year).
This wasn’t the contract for the 39-year-old LeBron James but a four-year, $32 million deal with Max Christie (according to Spotrac). According to Dunks & Threes, Christie had a negative Estimated Wins (-1.1) last year, meaning he was a net negative for his team.
However, this isn’t the final word. I believe Christie has the potential to become a solid role player. If he does, he’d be well worth the $8 million per year over the next four years. The formula simply suggests that based on past production, his current contract isn’t justified. Fortunately, Christie is young and has ample room for improvement.
This Formula Doesn’t Like Malik Monk, But It Loves LeBron James
Regarding contracts that didn’t fare well in this exercise, the eighth-worst contract signed this offseason was the extension the Kings gave to Malik Monk: four years, $76 million. Based on his Estimated Wins, Monk should be making $9.9 million next year, which is $9.6 million less than the average annual value of his contract.
This is particularly interesting because many believe Monk took a pay cut to stay with the Kings. Some of this disparity can be attributed to the limitations of the formula (you can read more about that in my article), and part of it might be due to his end-of-season injury that affected his ability to boost his Estimated Wins total. However, it might also indicate that Monk’s player archetype (non-star combo guard) isn’t valued as highly. As with most things, the true answer probably lies somewhere in the middle.
On the other hand, the formula is quite favorable to LeBron James. It suggests he should earn $51.7 million in 2024-25, which is $1 million more than the average annual value of his latest contract.