Let’s be realistic: Tarik Skubal is not coming to St. Louis. Cardinals fans know it, even the ones who believe every offseason could bring a blockbuster signing. His chances of joining the team are practically nonexistent. I’d put them at about 0.1%. Someone else can spend their time exploring that possibility because I certainly won’t.
The rest of the free-agent starting pitching market, however, deserves a closer look. That doesn’t mean the Cardinals are guaranteed to make a major signing, but there are enough realistic possibilities worth discussing as the offseason approaches.
One name that stands out is Trevor Rogers, arguably the best available starter behind Skubal. Rogers isn’t a perfect pitcher, and calling him the second-best option on the market probably makes him sound more impressive than he actually is. Still, he offers something the Cardinals should find appealing: a potentially reasonable price tag and an age that makes a long-term investment easier to justify. He’ll be 29 next season, putting him in a favorable position compared with many older free-agent starters.
And his recent production deserves some serious attention.
Across his last 48 starts with the Baltimore Orioles, spanning two seasons, Rogers has accumulated 7.3 fWAR. That is the kind of production teams expect from a pitcher near the top of their rotation. Those numbers make a strong case for his value, even if certain aspects of his performance raise questions about how sustainable that success really is.
One concern is his unusually low home run rate relative to the number of fly balls he allows. Rogers has consistently avoided giving up home runs at a rate that may be difficult to maintain. Pitching at Busch Stadium could help, considering the park’s characteristics, but it doesn’t completely eliminate the risk. In 2026, the difference between Rogers looking like a solid, above-average starter and performing like a genuine frontline pitcher has largely come down to his ability to keep fly balls from leaving the yard.
His approach on the mound is also worth examining.
Rogers relies heavily on his fastball arsenal, which Statcast identifies as three distinct fastball variations. His primary weapon is the four-seamer, averaging 93.8 mph and accounting for 46.9% of his total pitches. That’s nearly half his arsenal built around one pitch.
He gets the best results when he attacks the upper part of the strike zone or elevates the ball above it. The four-seamer produces a swing-and-miss roughly 25% of the time, while recording a strikeout on 19% of the occasions he throws it with two strikes. Those numbers explain why he continues to trust it so heavily.
What happens next often depends on whether he’s facing a right-handed or left-handed hitter.
Against righties, Rogers frequently turns to his changeup as his secondary offering. Of the 551 changeups he has thrown, approximately 89% have been directed at right-handed batters. That tells you how rarely he uses the pitch against lefties.
The strategy is fairly straightforward. He challenges right-handed hitters with elevated four-seam fastballs before trying to disrupt their timing with changeups low in the strike zone or beneath it. It’s a traditional pitching combination that can be effective when executed properly.
However, the changeup isn’t particularly effective as a finishing pitch. When Rogers throws it with two strikes, it produces a strikeout only about 10% of the time. It serves more as a complementary weapon than a reliable way to put hitters away.
That brings us to the biggest question surrounding Rogers: how much longer can he maintain his current level of performance?
There is a relatively narrow gap between the pitcher who has impressed over the past two seasons and one who could settle into being an ordinary major league starter. A few changes in his home run numbers or pitch effectiveness could significantly alter his value.
The versions of Rogers we saw in 2025 and 2026 would absolutely strengthen the Cardinals’ rotation. The uncertainty is whether that same pitcher will still be there throughout the length of a potential contract.
And that’s where things become complicated.
Rogers is the first starting pitcher from this free-agent class I’ve examined closely, so I’m not ready to decide whether he should be a priority for St. Louis. There are other available pitchers worth evaluating before reaching that conclusion.
For now, I’m somewhere in the middle. I can see why the Cardinals might pursue him, and I certainly wouldn’t dismiss the possibility. But the idea of committing five years and $85 million to Trevor Rogers doesn’t fill me with confidence either.
He could turn out to be a valuable addition. He could also become an expensive reminder of how quickly a pitcher’s performance can change.
Until I’ve looked at the other options, I’m not convinced he’s the investment the Cardinals should make.
